02066nas a2200229   4500008004100000022001400041245009100055210006900146300001200215490000700227520129200234653002701526653002801553653002501581653002501606653001101631653002201642100002101664700001801685700002001703856011301723       2023                        eng d  a2300-168200aPredicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing0 aPredicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications  a265-2920 v123 a<p style="text-align: justify;">Poland, traditionally a country of emigration, started to record a positive migration balance in recent years, but so far no forecast has indicated the possibility of Poland&rsquo;s transition from a net sending to a net receiving regime. This study aims at indicating the theoretical underpinnings of such a change and providing an international migration projection. To this end, we refer to historical experiences of other European countries, more advanced in terms of the Demographic Transition (DT), Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and Migration Transition. We develop a deterministic migration projection of four types of flows (in- and out-migration of nationals and foreign citizens) till 2060, combined with the United Nations&rsquo; Bayesian probabilistic models of fertility and mortality projections. The results show that Poland will evolve from a net sending into a net receiving status around 2030&ndash;2034. The combined effect of migration flows on population ageing will not be significant but in the long run, when considered separately, the four types of flows will have non-negligible, though opposite effects: outflows will contribute to population rejuvenation, while inflows will accelerate population ageing.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>10ademographic transition10ainternational migration10amigration projection10amigration transition10aPoland10apopulation ageing1 aFihel, Agnieszka1 aJanicka, Anna1 aOkólski, Marek  uhttp://ceemr.uw.edu.pl/content/predicting-migration-transition-poland-and-its-implications-population-ageing